Tonight is make-or-break night for Obama. Not just because it’s the second presidential debate, not just because it’s a town hall-style format—which John McCain loves—but also because Obama leads McCain by just shy of 6% in the RealClearPolitics polling averages. Why is that bad for Obama? Let’s explore.

Obama peaked much earlier than his campaign expected to. These things are cyclical, and Obama reached a legitimate victory margin with a month left for voters to decide the election. That’s bad for the Democrats because people will have a chance to reexamine Obama’s stances, which will invariably lead to some voters becoming disenfranchised rather quickly. Democrats face a huge problem from an electability standpoint: their policies tend to sound good on quick inspection, but rarely hold up to real scrutiny. Case in point: Obama’s 95% tax cut claim. With $850 billion in new spending proposals, he simply cannot cut as many taxes as he says he would.

Second, the debate bar tonight is set impossibly high for Obama tonight. His debate style is to recite his talking points and regurgitate the same old “Here’s what we’ll do, but don’t ask me how,” lines. That will hurt him tonight. With a poll lead like Obama has, people will want to hear something new tonight. I guarantee that something will never come. He has nothing new to say. This debate is Obama’s to lose, and barring some huge gaffe from McCain—which, knowing McCain is very unlikely—he will.

The third reason that Obama will likely suffer tonight and in the coming week or so is an oldie but a goodie: Ayers and Wright. The McCain campaign is bringing back the issue of Obama’s radical ties. At first, I thought that this was a borderline suicidal move from the McCain camp, but as it turns out, it was brilliant to do this when they did. With just a month left to decide, swing voters will get another look at Bill Ayers, the unrepentant Weather Underground terrorist, and Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the loony pastor who thinks that America invented AIDS to eradicate black people, and the people will swing back away from Obama just in time to vote.

Bear in mind, readers; McCain wins tonight by a similar formula to Biden’s victory in the VP debate. He must seem knowledgeable in contrast to Obama’s inexperience and he simply has to avoid any screw-ups. McCain isn’t prone to major gaffes, but the possibility is always there in the realm of politics. But this is a format where the candidates are held accountable to the American people, not to the moderator, so McCain should theoretically have an advantage. Unless Tom Brokaw gets in the way, which I’m not expecting—even if he is an NBC guy, he’s usually pretty fair—Obama has a lead that will not withstand the scrutiny of the American people.

Wow. THAT was a debate. I think I enjoyed that debate more than any exchange between politicians in a very long time. Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin were very much equally matched. I have to commend them both. I took 6 ¼ pages of notes before 9:10 PM central time (a little over an hour into the debate) before I had to stop. My hand was too tired.

I’ll start with Sen. Biden’s strengths. He is infinitely stronger in a debate than Sen. Obama. Unlike the ticket’s top, Biden has the benefit of specifics and strong points. Where Obama regurgitates talking points, Biden can emphasize specific beliefs and particular points to highlight what his views for action in 2009 forward include.

Biden did, amusingly, look at Palin with almost admiration while she answered, specifically in the early parts of the debate. Biden came off as all business. He was direct, strong, and had logic to back up his positions. Even while I disagreed with him on a great many things, I understood and respect where he came from. He connected to me, a staunch Republican, on that level.

Palin’s strengths were two-fold. One: she made no gaffes. At all. She was factually prepared, honest, and didn’t fumble anything. Two: she was human. The woman who wowed America at the RNC came back in full force tonight. She spoke directly to the American people. She came off as Biden’s antithesis: folksy, often funny, and dare I say cute. She managed to achieve a balance that Hillary Clinton and Geraldine Ferraro never could: she was strong, intelligent, and feminine at the same time. Unlike many women in politics, she was unafraid to be wholly a woman and wholly a leader. I applaud that.

Weaknesses are harder to come by. Neither candidate really fouled anything up at a totally noticeable level. The biggest criticism I have goes to Palin: early on, she wanted to keep answering the energy question over and over. Biden was almost three questions ahead of her at that point, and that came close to hurting her. Fortunately, it caused no lasting damage, and I, for one, was over it one question later. Biden had more problems with actual facts, such as his previous statements on coal power; but a casual observer would likely think that Biden did fine.

I will do a follow-up piece to this one on fact-checking specifics. But here, I want to focus on the big picture. While I thought that John McCain won the first Presidential debate—albeit by a slim margin—and articulated that point in my school’s newspaper, I have to say, in all honesty and fairness, that Joe Biden came out just a hair ahead tonight.

Don’t misunderstand me. I love Governor Palin, and I think she did absolutely excellent tonight. But Biden had a more professional air, which lends itself to perceived credibility. What I’ve felt about Biden for a very long time is that he’s a remarkably liberal person who breaks all the liberal rules of presentation. He comes off like many conservatives do; more concerned with facts and his own logic than the emotion and “bleeding-heart” elements that usually drive liberals. Obviously, Biden did make factual errors in his performance, but he nevertheless had the aura that can usually only be controlled by conservative thought.

Palin’s personality and conviction won her some friends tonight, and it reminded me why I like her. But her answers lacked depth, which unfortunately drew contrast from Biden’s experience and argumentative brawn.

Congratulations to Joe Biden on his very, very, very narrow victory tonight. And congratulations to Sarah Palin for blowing your first National debate out of the water. Both candidates gave a stellar, fast-paced, and outright entertaining performance tonight. I know most of the pundits are against me tonight, but these are my immediate impressions.

UPDATE: The follow-up piece mentioned above has been cancelled. I feel that the issue had been covered ad-nauseum, and that most rational-minded Americans will agree that Biden won on presentation/appearance of knowledge, and that Palin won on actual facts. Biden made, I believe 14 factual errors to Palin's 6 or 7. Our gal won there, but the bar should have been higher.