Posted by
"Mind and Morals" Michael Coyne on Tuesday, October 07, 2008 5:15:00 PM
Tonight is make-or-break night for Obama. Not just because
it’s the second presidential debate, not just because it’s a town hall-style
format—which
John McCain loves—but also because Obama leads McCain by just shy of 6% in the
RealClearPolitics polling averages. Why is that bad for Obama? Let’s explore.
Obama peaked much earlier than his campaign expected to.
These things are cyclical, and Obama reached a legitimate victory margin with a
month left for voters to decide the election. That’s bad for the Democrats
because people will have a chance to reexamine Obama’s stances, which will
invariably lead to some voters becoming disenfranchised rather quickly.
Democrats face a huge problem from an electability standpoint: their policies
tend to sound good on quick inspection, but rarely hold up to real scrutiny.
Case in point: Obama’s 95% tax cut claim. With $850 billion in new spending
proposals, he simply cannot cut as many taxes as he says he would.
Second, the debate bar tonight is set impossibly high for
Obama tonight. His debate style is to recite his talking points and regurgitate
the same old “Here’s what we’ll do, but don’t ask me how,” lines. That will
hurt him tonight. With a poll lead like Obama has, people will want to hear
something new tonight. I guarantee that something will never come. He has
nothing new to say. This debate is Obama’s to lose, and barring some huge gaffe
from McCain—which, knowing McCain is very unlikely—he will.
The third reason that Obama will likely suffer tonight and
in the coming week or so is an oldie but a goodie: Ayers and Wright. The McCain
campaign is bringing back the issue of Obama’s radical ties. At first, I
thought that this was a borderline suicidal move from the McCain camp, but as
it turns out, it was brilliant to do this when they did. With just a month left
to decide, swing voters will get another look at Bill Ayers, the
unrepentant Weather Underground terrorist, and Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the loony
pastor who thinks that America invented AIDS to eradicate black people, and the
people will swing back away from Obama just in time to vote.
Bear in mind, readers; McCain wins tonight by a similar formula to
Biden’s victory in the VP debate. He must seem knowledgeable in contrast to
Obama’s inexperience and he simply has to avoid any screw-ups. McCain isn’t
prone to major gaffes, but the possibility is always there in the realm of
politics. But this is a format where the candidates are held accountable to the
American people, not to the moderator, so McCain should theoretically have an advantage.
Unless Tom Brokaw gets in the way, which I’m not expecting—even if he is an NBC
guy, he’s usually pretty fair—Obama has a lead that will not withstand the
scrutiny of the American people.